George Bush has made a surprise visit to Baghdad, where the government of Nuri al-Maliki is enjoying a rare period of success. But nobody doubts that Iraq continues to face enormous problems
Jun 13th 2006
MOST seem to agree. Though the death last week of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in an American bomb attack was a good thing, it will not end the insurgency—indeed, violence continued over the weekend. Mr Zarqawi was a powerful figure. He orchestrated some of the most gruesome slaughter in the three years since the American-led coalition invaded Iraq. But the insurgency was always more Iraqi than the focus on the Jordanian Mr Zarqawi seemed to show.
On Tuesday June 13th, George Bush made surprise trip to Baghdad, to meet the newish prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki. He was expected to spend just five hours on the ground. Administration officials say the visit was not to take advantage of Mr Zarqawi's killing. Rather, a strategy session with the new government had been in the works for months. But Mr Zarqawi's death provided a convenient opportunity for the two men to talk about the many challenges still facing Iraq.
A day earlier, al-Qaeda in Iraq named a little-known militant to succeed its slain leader. “The shura council of al-Qaeda in Iraq unanimously agreed on Sheikh Abu Hamza al-Muhajir to be a successor to Sheikh Abu Musab al-Zarqawi,” reported a statement signed by al-Qaeda and posted on a website frequently used by Islamist militants. Mr Muhajir is unknown to western intelligence, but his name is probably a pseudonym—“muhajir” is “emigrant” in Arabic. This itself is newsworthy: some had believed that Osama bin Laden (and others) would have preferred an Iraqi to take over. According to a profile in the Atlantic magazine, quoting Israeli intelligence, Mr bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders reportedly worried about Mr Zarqawi’s anti-Shia zeal. Some nationalist insurgents perhaps also resented the Jordanian’s status.
But Mr Bush was more likely to focus on another bit of recent news. Mr Maliki has finally created a complete cabinet. Last week Iraq's leader finally announced that he had chosen men to do the jobs of defence minister and interior minister: defence is taken by a Sunni, Abdel Qader al-Obeidi, and the interior post by a Shia, Jawad al-Bolani. Crucially, both are said to be free of any ties to the sectarian militias that plague Iraq. The interior ministry, in particular, had a reputation under the previous minister of supporting Shia death-squads against Sunnis.
The complete cabinet and Mr Zarqawi’s death are, together, good reasons to cheer. The early insurgency focused its violence on foreign troops. Mr Zarqawi helped turn Iraqis against one another, declaring Shias to be heretics who should be killed by Sunni believers. His tactics were not always popular, even in insurgent circles. He bombed a wedding in Jordan, widely considered a blunder, and many did not approve of turning Iraqi against Iraqi. The completion of the cabinet may, possibly, help to re-unite Iraq.
The government’s efforts, however, will have to continue on many difficult fronts. Sunnis want to amend the constitution, to prevent the Shia majority (around 60% of the population) monopolising political power and taking charge of most oil revenues. Sunnis have four months from the convening of the government (on May 3rd) to change the document, according to an agreement last year. In the best-case scenario, Sunnis will get some comforting symbolic changes to the constitution. Meanwhile, Sunnis and Kurds will move slowly and deliberately on any plans for greater regional autonomy.
But many factors are working against them. Corruption and cronyism are rife, as Iraqis look out for the interests of their family, tribe and co-religionists. The discovery of a new oilfield in Kurdistan, announced on June 12th, highlights this. The Kurds want to make their own deal with a Norwegian oil company, while the federal government also claims control. Economic progress is needed to get angry young men into jobs, and to keep the lights on and the taps running. As that fails, more ordinary and frustrated Iraqis are willing to support the insurgents. Sorting that out, as much as making military progress against terrorists like Mr Zarqawi, is needed if foreign troops are to be able to leave Iraq
Jun 13th 2006
MOST seem to agree. Though the death last week of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in an American bomb attack was a good thing, it will not end the insurgency—indeed, violence continued over the weekend. Mr Zarqawi was a powerful figure. He orchestrated some of the most gruesome slaughter in the three years since the American-led coalition invaded Iraq. But the insurgency was always more Iraqi than the focus on the Jordanian Mr Zarqawi seemed to show.
On Tuesday June 13th, George Bush made surprise trip to Baghdad, to meet the newish prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki. He was expected to spend just five hours on the ground. Administration officials say the visit was not to take advantage of Mr Zarqawi's killing. Rather, a strategy session with the new government had been in the works for months. But Mr Zarqawi's death provided a convenient opportunity for the two men to talk about the many challenges still facing Iraq.
A day earlier, al-Qaeda in Iraq named a little-known militant to succeed its slain leader. “The shura council of al-Qaeda in Iraq unanimously agreed on Sheikh Abu Hamza al-Muhajir to be a successor to Sheikh Abu Musab al-Zarqawi,” reported a statement signed by al-Qaeda and posted on a website frequently used by Islamist militants. Mr Muhajir is unknown to western intelligence, but his name is probably a pseudonym—“muhajir” is “emigrant” in Arabic. This itself is newsworthy: some had believed that Osama bin Laden (and others) would have preferred an Iraqi to take over. According to a profile in the Atlantic magazine, quoting Israeli intelligence, Mr bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders reportedly worried about Mr Zarqawi’s anti-Shia zeal. Some nationalist insurgents perhaps also resented the Jordanian’s status.
But Mr Bush was more likely to focus on another bit of recent news. Mr Maliki has finally created a complete cabinet. Last week Iraq's leader finally announced that he had chosen men to do the jobs of defence minister and interior minister: defence is taken by a Sunni, Abdel Qader al-Obeidi, and the interior post by a Shia, Jawad al-Bolani. Crucially, both are said to be free of any ties to the sectarian militias that plague Iraq. The interior ministry, in particular, had a reputation under the previous minister of supporting Shia death-squads against Sunnis.
The complete cabinet and Mr Zarqawi’s death are, together, good reasons to cheer. The early insurgency focused its violence on foreign troops. Mr Zarqawi helped turn Iraqis against one another, declaring Shias to be heretics who should be killed by Sunni believers. His tactics were not always popular, even in insurgent circles. He bombed a wedding in Jordan, widely considered a blunder, and many did not approve of turning Iraqi against Iraqi. The completion of the cabinet may, possibly, help to re-unite Iraq.
The government’s efforts, however, will have to continue on many difficult fronts. Sunnis want to amend the constitution, to prevent the Shia majority (around 60% of the population) monopolising political power and taking charge of most oil revenues. Sunnis have four months from the convening of the government (on May 3rd) to change the document, according to an agreement last year. In the best-case scenario, Sunnis will get some comforting symbolic changes to the constitution. Meanwhile, Sunnis and Kurds will move slowly and deliberately on any plans for greater regional autonomy.
But many factors are working against them. Corruption and cronyism are rife, as Iraqis look out for the interests of their family, tribe and co-religionists. The discovery of a new oilfield in Kurdistan, announced on June 12th, highlights this. The Kurds want to make their own deal with a Norwegian oil company, while the federal government also claims control. Economic progress is needed to get angry young men into jobs, and to keep the lights on and the taps running. As that fails, more ordinary and frustrated Iraqis are willing to support the insurgents. Sorting that out, as much as making military progress against terrorists like Mr Zarqawi, is needed if foreign troops are to be able to leave Iraq
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