الأحد، 15 أغسطس 2010

The Taliban’s strategy for recognition


Diplomacy takes over in the fight for Afghanistan

Feb 4th 1999

FLUSHING, one of New York’s more remote districts, is home to the Taliban’s mission to the United Nations. Manhattan might be more convenient, but Abdul Hakeem Mujahid, the head of the mission, says money is tight. A compensation is that most of New York’s Afghan population lives in Flushing, and Mr Mujahid and his colleagues have become part of the community. A couple related to the Taliban staff were married last weekend. Afghans came from all over America to see the bride and groom ride through New York in a stretch limo. The Taliban seem well liked in Flushing. It would be helpful, they say, if the rest of the world accorded them approval.

At present, it won’t. The Taliban control almost all of Afghanistan but their extreme form of Islamic rule has won them few friends, and recognition only from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Other countries with diplomatic relations with Afghanistan recognise the deposed government, which has the country’s seat in the UN General Assembly. UN officials say they have to take note of the Taliban’s dominance in Afghanistan. To UN officials Mr Mujahid is the Taliban’s representative in New York (rather than “permanent representative designate” to the UN, his own description) and, as such, he has regular meetings with senior officials. The Taliban argue that, once they take control of the last bit of Afghanistan, the UN will be unable to deny them Afghanistan’s General Assembly seat.

This last bit is centred on the Panjshir Valley (see map), defended by forces under Ahmad Shah Masoud, the defence minister of the deposed government. His old allies—once familiar names in every article about Afghanistan such as the politicians Burhanuddin Rabbani and Gulbuddin Hikmatyar and the northern warlord Abdul Rashid Dostam—seem to have fled, leaving Mr Masoud to fight a sacrificial rearguard. The Taliban seem confident that, once the winter snows have melted, they will take the valley and Taloqan, the last town in their enemies’ hands.

They could be right. Since 1995, when the Taliban first came to world attention, they have had a phenomenal success, which has yet to be fully explained. Their unyielding and often brutal rule has brought order to a chaotic country that suffered first from the Russian occupation and then from civil war. However, even with the whole of Afghanistan in their hands, the General Assembly seat is unlikely to be automatically theirs. The UN’s credentials committee, which would make, or defer, a recommendation about who should occupy the seat, includes among its nine members representatives from America and Russia, which, in a rare bonding, are both critical of the Taliban.

The Russians fear that the Taliban seek to spread their influence among Muslims in the former Soviet states of Central Asia, and perhaps into Russia itself. Russia is one of Mr Masoud’s main sources of arms.

The United States has even wider objections. It dislikes the Taliban’s record on human rights, particularly their appalling treatment of women and their use of medieval punishments. It also wants the Taliban to extradite Osama bin Laden, whom it believes was involved in the bombing of the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in August.

This could be the sticking-point for recognition. After the African bombings, Madeleine Albright, the American secretary of state, said that the Taliban would enhance their prospects for American recognition and acceptance by the UN if they stopped harbouring Mr bin Laden. She added that America believed there should be a broad-based government in Kabul. Mrs Albright is also aware of feelings among western women—and notably among American voters—about the treatment of women in Afghanistan. America is not going to be won over easily, however much it would like to see a settlement in Afghanistan.

In seeking to reassure the critics, the Taliban say they aim to run a durable, stable Islamic state that would not interfere with its neighbours. Over women they are defensive, claiming that, by tradition, they do not work outside the home. In talks in Washington with American officials they say they would be willing to consider extraditing Mr bin Laden if the United States offered convincing evidence against him.

Could things change? Mr Mujahid says that within the Taliban there are conservatives and “ultra-conservatives”. It may be that the mere conservatives are seeking at the moment to meet the UN’s conditions for returning humanitarian workers to Afghanistan. They were withdrawn last August after the deaths of two Afghan UN workers and an Italian military observer. On January 25th, representatives of the Taliban and the UN met in Kandahar. On February 7th, a team of UN officials are due in Kabul and Jalalabad to check on security arrangements. The United States will be watching carefully. If the Americans were ever to recognise the Taliban, other countries would follow fast. “But we are not begging,” says Mr Mujahid

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