Sep 16th 1999
TERRORIST attacks are always awful, anonymous ones especially so. Three mysterious bomb blasts in Moscow and two in Russia’s far south in the past three weeks have killed at least 350 people, and maimed scores more. Russia’s capital, a city unused to terror, at least of the post-Soviet kind, is in an ominously nervy, intolerant state of mind. There seem to be no real clues, but any number of alarming theories.
The Russian authorities are in no doubt. “It is obvious that we are dealing with well-trained international saboteurs,” says Vladimir Putin, the prime minister. “It’s absolutely clear that the terrorists are hiding in Chechen territory.” Politicians of all shades have united to demand the toughest measures against Chechnya, an all-but-independent Muslim republic in southern Russia. The mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov, apparently ignorant of Chechnya’s mountainous topography, has suggested fencing it off with a barrier similar to the Berlin Wall.
The Chechens are easy scapegoats but unlikely culprits. Many do loathe Russia, which has treated them horribly. And freelance Chechen guerrillas have in past weeks been fighting Russian forces in Dagestan, a neighbouring republic. But the Chechen government, which wants peace with Russia and international recognition, has condemned the bombings. So, more tellingly, has the most prominent Chechen commander in the Dagestan fighting, Shamil Basaev. His quarrel is with the Russian army, not civilians, he says.
It is, of course, possible that he is lying, or that another allied group, perhaps Dagestani guerrillas, are involved. Russian officials—and some American terrorism experts—blame international Islamic terrorists. They say that Osama bin Laden, a notorious Saudi-born terrorist blamed for bomb attacks on American embassies, is operating training camps in Chechnya to help insurgents in Dagestan.
Mr bin Laden may have his own scores to settle with Russia, but there is no hard evidence of his involvement, let alone presence. No known terrorist organisation, local or foreign, has claimed responsibility for the blasts. Mairbek Vachagaev, Chechnya’s representative in Moscow, says that the Russian leadership has cooked up the idea of a Saudi connection to engage American interest and sympathy.
Even more alarming is the idea that a faction in President Boris Yeltsin’s besieged presidential court is prepared to use such means to hang on to power beyond next year’s elections. However outrageous, this conspiracy theory is taken seriously by many Russians, and was discussed in the press even before the most recent bombs.
If true, one aim might be to prepare the ground for a state of emergency or putsch; another somehow to harm Yuri Luzhkov, the mayor of Moscow, and a leading adversary of the president. A third might be to distract attention from allegations of top-level corruption and money laundering. “Some of these people have a completely criminal mentality, and they’re desperate,” says a senior figure in Mr Luzhkov’s camp who believes that Kremlin cronies have at least some involvement.
Others doubt such conspiratorial explanations. Boris Fedorov, a former (pro-market) finance minister, says that even the nastiest bits of the Russian political spectrum go in only for “private killings, not terrorist attacks in the centre of Moscow”. Certainly, the bombs have had no clear political effect so far. Politicians of all parties, including those allied to the Kremlin, have said that there is no need for a state of emergency and that the parliamentary elections due on December 19th should take place on time.
Mr Luzhkov, like other leading politicians, has been calling for vigilance and national unity. The financial scandals roll on regardless—most recently with a detailed allegation by Yuri Skuratov, the country’s prosecutor-general who was suspended for looking too closely at the Kremlin, that $3.9 billion of the IMF’s $4.8 billion loan last year never reached Russia, but was sold by the central bank directly to 18 well-connected commercial banks.
All this may change if more bombs go off. What is already clear is that Russia’s frail commitment to human rights and the rule of law is weakening. Even liberal politicians’ remarks about Chechens smack of racism. Mr Luzhkov has called for a re-registration of people who have moved to Moscow from other places “with special attention to Chechens”. This could make life in the capital even chancier and more miserable for Russian Muslims and Caucasians who, as it is, often feel the heavy hand of the police. Mr Vachagaev says that over 500 Chechens have already been arrested in Moscow “simply on the ground of their nationality”.
He also fears spontaneous acts of revenge, unhindered by the police. “One group was planning to storm our office on Tuesday,” says the envoy. “When I asked the authorities for protection, they said only that they would send a second policeman.”
And all this before Russia’s election campaigns have even properly begun.
TERRORIST attacks are always awful, anonymous ones especially so. Three mysterious bomb blasts in Moscow and two in Russia’s far south in the past three weeks have killed at least 350 people, and maimed scores more. Russia’s capital, a city unused to terror, at least of the post-Soviet kind, is in an ominously nervy, intolerant state of mind. There seem to be no real clues, but any number of alarming theories.
The Russian authorities are in no doubt. “It is obvious that we are dealing with well-trained international saboteurs,” says Vladimir Putin, the prime minister. “It’s absolutely clear that the terrorists are hiding in Chechen territory.” Politicians of all shades have united to demand the toughest measures against Chechnya, an all-but-independent Muslim republic in southern Russia. The mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov, apparently ignorant of Chechnya’s mountainous topography, has suggested fencing it off with a barrier similar to the Berlin Wall.
The Chechens are easy scapegoats but unlikely culprits. Many do loathe Russia, which has treated them horribly. And freelance Chechen guerrillas have in past weeks been fighting Russian forces in Dagestan, a neighbouring republic. But the Chechen government, which wants peace with Russia and international recognition, has condemned the bombings. So, more tellingly, has the most prominent Chechen commander in the Dagestan fighting, Shamil Basaev. His quarrel is with the Russian army, not civilians, he says.
It is, of course, possible that he is lying, or that another allied group, perhaps Dagestani guerrillas, are involved. Russian officials—and some American terrorism experts—blame international Islamic terrorists. They say that Osama bin Laden, a notorious Saudi-born terrorist blamed for bomb attacks on American embassies, is operating training camps in Chechnya to help insurgents in Dagestan.
Mr bin Laden may have his own scores to settle with Russia, but there is no hard evidence of his involvement, let alone presence. No known terrorist organisation, local or foreign, has claimed responsibility for the blasts. Mairbek Vachagaev, Chechnya’s representative in Moscow, says that the Russian leadership has cooked up the idea of a Saudi connection to engage American interest and sympathy.
Even more alarming is the idea that a faction in President Boris Yeltsin’s besieged presidential court is prepared to use such means to hang on to power beyond next year’s elections. However outrageous, this conspiracy theory is taken seriously by many Russians, and was discussed in the press even before the most recent bombs.
If true, one aim might be to prepare the ground for a state of emergency or putsch; another somehow to harm Yuri Luzhkov, the mayor of Moscow, and a leading adversary of the president. A third might be to distract attention from allegations of top-level corruption and money laundering. “Some of these people have a completely criminal mentality, and they’re desperate,” says a senior figure in Mr Luzhkov’s camp who believes that Kremlin cronies have at least some involvement.
Others doubt such conspiratorial explanations. Boris Fedorov, a former (pro-market) finance minister, says that even the nastiest bits of the Russian political spectrum go in only for “private killings, not terrorist attacks in the centre of Moscow”. Certainly, the bombs have had no clear political effect so far. Politicians of all parties, including those allied to the Kremlin, have said that there is no need for a state of emergency and that the parliamentary elections due on December 19th should take place on time.
Mr Luzhkov, like other leading politicians, has been calling for vigilance and national unity. The financial scandals roll on regardless—most recently with a detailed allegation by Yuri Skuratov, the country’s prosecutor-general who was suspended for looking too closely at the Kremlin, that $3.9 billion of the IMF’s $4.8 billion loan last year never reached Russia, but was sold by the central bank directly to 18 well-connected commercial banks.
All this may change if more bombs go off. What is already clear is that Russia’s frail commitment to human rights and the rule of law is weakening. Even liberal politicians’ remarks about Chechens smack of racism. Mr Luzhkov has called for a re-registration of people who have moved to Moscow from other places “with special attention to Chechens”. This could make life in the capital even chancier and more miserable for Russian Muslims and Caucasians who, as it is, often feel the heavy hand of the police. Mr Vachagaev says that over 500 Chechens have already been arrested in Moscow “simply on the ground of their nationality”.
He also fears spontaneous acts of revenge, unhindered by the police. “One group was planning to storm our office on Tuesday,” says the envoy. “When I asked the authorities for protection, they said only that they would send a second policeman.”
And all this before Russia’s election campaigns have even properly begun.
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