Aug 27th 1998
THE cruise missiles that flew into Afghanistan to destroy a suspected terrorist training camp have further unsettled the politics of the region. The advance of the Taliban in the north has left most of the country under their control. The fervent Islamist militia is encamped once again along the border with a nervous Central Asia. To the south in Peshawar, the main border town in Pakistan, the backlash against America and growing support for a holy war—jihad—are all too clear, as protesters spill on to the streets.
Fourteen months ago, the Taliban were in a similar position in Afghanistan. But their fighters had to retreat when deals with local warlords collapsed. Now they intend to stay. To do so they need money and the continued support of their main allies, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Hence the difficulty over Osama bin Laden (see article), the exiled Saudi militant whom America accuses of being behind the attacks on its embassies in Kenya and Tanzania: he is living in Afghanistan and was running the camp hit by the missiles.
Handing Mr bin Laden over to the Americans would clearly damage the Taliban’s Islamist credentials. Nevertheless, the group does seem prepared for some sort of compromise. Its main leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, has reportedly told Mr bin Laden to stop making threats against America from Afghan soil. And in contrast to their recent obstruction of aid workers, the Taliban helped, when asked, with a swift evacuation of foreigners from the country.
Where all this leaves Afghanistan’s neighbours is less clear. The government of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan is beleaguered by a financial calamity and badly needs America’s help to bail out its economy. That help may be provided if Pakistan signs conventions on nuclear arms. Yet the Islamists want to see an end to Pakistan’s links with America. On top of that, Pakistan’s religious parties seem likely to gain support as an alternative to the corruption of the bureaucracy and traditional political parties.
The ex-Soviet politicians who now run Central Asia are just as nervous. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan agreed in May with Russia to try to counter the spread of extremist Islam. There have been arrests and show trials to discredit hundreds of Muslims. Turkmenistan, however, has shared a border with the Taliban now for three years and is less concerned. Religious activism probably counts for little beside the personality cult now surrounding Turkmenistan’s President Saparmurad Niazov. The country would also like a route for the export of its gas that did not pass through Russia; Afghanistan could provide it.
Securing trade routes through Afghanistan to Central Asia and its vast hydrocarbon and mineral resources will lead foreigners to try to do business with the Taliban. That may include Americans, even though the missiles will have suspended some business ambitions for a while. American officials this week repeated that the Taliban must honour international norms on human rights, drugs and terrorism. It remains to be seen how far foreigners will press the Taliban on such issues when the dealing eventually begins
THE cruise missiles that flew into Afghanistan to destroy a suspected terrorist training camp have further unsettled the politics of the region. The advance of the Taliban in the north has left most of the country under their control. The fervent Islamist militia is encamped once again along the border with a nervous Central Asia. To the south in Peshawar, the main border town in Pakistan, the backlash against America and growing support for a holy war—jihad—are all too clear, as protesters spill on to the streets.
Fourteen months ago, the Taliban were in a similar position in Afghanistan. But their fighters had to retreat when deals with local warlords collapsed. Now they intend to stay. To do so they need money and the continued support of their main allies, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Hence the difficulty over Osama bin Laden (see article), the exiled Saudi militant whom America accuses of being behind the attacks on its embassies in Kenya and Tanzania: he is living in Afghanistan and was running the camp hit by the missiles.
Handing Mr bin Laden over to the Americans would clearly damage the Taliban’s Islamist credentials. Nevertheless, the group does seem prepared for some sort of compromise. Its main leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, has reportedly told Mr bin Laden to stop making threats against America from Afghan soil. And in contrast to their recent obstruction of aid workers, the Taliban helped, when asked, with a swift evacuation of foreigners from the country.
Where all this leaves Afghanistan’s neighbours is less clear. The government of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan is beleaguered by a financial calamity and badly needs America’s help to bail out its economy. That help may be provided if Pakistan signs conventions on nuclear arms. Yet the Islamists want to see an end to Pakistan’s links with America. On top of that, Pakistan’s religious parties seem likely to gain support as an alternative to the corruption of the bureaucracy and traditional political parties.
The ex-Soviet politicians who now run Central Asia are just as nervous. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan agreed in May with Russia to try to counter the spread of extremist Islam. There have been arrests and show trials to discredit hundreds of Muslims. Turkmenistan, however, has shared a border with the Taliban now for three years and is less concerned. Religious activism probably counts for little beside the personality cult now surrounding Turkmenistan’s President Saparmurad Niazov. The country would also like a route for the export of its gas that did not pass through Russia; Afghanistan could provide it.
Securing trade routes through Afghanistan to Central Asia and its vast hydrocarbon and mineral resources will lead foreigners to try to do business with the Taliban. That may include Americans, even though the missiles will have suspended some business ambitions for a while. American officials this week repeated that the Taliban must honour international norms on human rights, drugs and terrorism. It remains to be seen how far foreigners will press the Taliban on such issues when the dealing eventually begins
ليست هناك تعليقات:
إرسال تعليق